Author: Thorin Daniel (University of Surrey) - Ammonia is an essential chemical, underpinning the food supply for nearly half of the world’s population while simultaneously contributing over 1% of global carbon emissions - a paradox that underscores the urgency of rethinking its production methods. This study evaluates eight emerging ammonia production technologies, assessing their economic, environmental, and social viability from 2030 to 2070. Using Monte Carlo simulations and life cycle assessments (LCAs), the research predicts technological advancements and ranks each method based on performance metrics such as current density, faradaic efficiency, levelized cost of ammonia (LCOA), and environmental impact indicators. Key findings reveal that by 2030, only green hydrogen-based Haber-Bosch will be viable alongside traditional methods. Electrochemical routes are expected to mature by 2050-2070, offering low environmental impact, economic performance, decentralized production potential but face technical barriers. The study concludes that policymakers should consider regional priorities when implementing these technologies to align with sustainability goals. These findings provide critical insights for advancing ammonia production toward a net-zero future.
