Author: Qingchao Xu (Beijing Language and Culture University) - In the context of "Arctic amplification", the tension obviously occurs between the accessibility and economy of Arctic oil and gas resources and the extreme environmentality according to the carbon neutrality goal. With extensive research into the interaction between China and Arctic oil and gas resources under the carbon neutrality goal, this paper proposes that China's carbon neutrality process is composed of four periods based on its phased goals in 2020-2030, 2030-2040, 2040-2050, and 2050-2060. Taking the important events that have occurred or may occur per decade and their consequences as discussion scenarios, the study has following findings. First, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has disrupted the existing interdependence between Russia and Europe in energy, and the relationship between China and India on Russia uninterrupted demand for Arctic oil and gas resources has led to a new narrative on global energy security. Second, the approaching ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer makes it possible to expand the navigation period of the Arctic shipping lanes, which has both advantages and disadvantages for China’s use of Arctic energy. Third, as the proportion of clean energy in China’s final energy consumption structure increases, China’s total demand for Arctic oil and gas resources declines, allowing China to play a relatively independent role in the strategic triangle relationship with the United States and Russia. Fourth, by 2060, the new strategic triangular co-opetition between China, the United States, and Russia will undergo almost fundamental changes in the Arctic region, which will be reflected in the substantial increase in China's weight in Arctic energy distribution.
